When we presented last year’s edition of the Yearbook, we said that the bitter reality of the region condemned us to inevitable pessimism. A year on, the outlook has worsened: the ongoing devastation in Gaza, the spread of the war to Iran and the Gulf, economic and political instability, migration crises, European division, growing competition between powers and the drift towards authoritarianism have turned the Mediterranean area and its neighbouring regions into a Gordian knot of crises and conflicts that offers little cause for hope.
In such an interconnected world, there is no doubt that all these crises ultimately converge in the region and become part of a single regional dynamic. Wars, blockades of maritime routes, competition for resources and pressure on critical infrastructure mean that military, economic, energy and technological security have become inseparable dimensions. At the same time, the inability of multilateral institutions to curb violence or effectively protect the civilian population has deepened mistrust of a system that retains its rules but does not always enforce them with the same rigour.
Gaza remains the most harrowing manifestation of this crisis. The protracted destruction and the failure to make progress towards peace leave unresolved a conflict whose consequences extend far beyond Palestinian territory. Gaza continues to cast its shadow over European politics, relations between the two shores, the polarisation of their societies and the credibility of the international order. The war waged by Israel and the United States against Iran and the escalation in the Gulf are further elements of this crisis within an even broader and more uncertain regional context.
The immediacy of these conflicts must not make us forget the underlying processes that determine the future of the Mediterranean. Climate change is exacerbating water scarcity, food insecurity, wildfires and the vulnerability of tourism and agriculture. Demographic divergences between the two shores are compounded by economic inequalities and youth unemployment. Digitalisation and artificial intelligence open up opportunities, but they may also widen the gaps between countries and within each society. Added to all this is the rise of authoritarianism, with the shrinking of civic space and the political exploitation of migration.
Since its inception, the Yearbook has always sought to combine the immediate, the significant and the structural: to explain the events shaping the present while analysing the transformations that will determine the future. The 2026 edition remains true to this mission. Its articles and appendices do not seek to offer a single explanation of a profoundly diverse region, but rather to provide a range of perspectives that enable an understanding of how the various elements and dynamics shaping the region’s present and future interrelate.
The Keys section begins by asking what new Middle East might emerge from the current cycle of wars and realignments. The impact of US administration policies, the war against Iran, the response of the Gulf states and the search for regional security solutions paint a picture in which the use of force has demonstrated its enormous destructive capacity, but also its limitations when it comes to building a stable order. Replacing constant confrontation with mechanisms for coexistence will be one of the main challenges of the coming years.
The second Keys chapter places Gaza at the centre of international politics. The articles analyse the erosion of international law’s effective capacity to limit power, the spread of the war to an interconnected regional battlefield, Israel’s ideological drift, the difficulties of Palestinian governance and the Arab countries’ historical relationship with the Palestinian question. Taken together, they show that the future of Gaza cannot be separated from the future of the regional order or the credibility of international institutions.
The third of the Keys examines the relationship between the European Union and the Mediterranean. The European response to Gaza has accentuated internal divisions and damaged the Union’s image as a peace project and a normative actor. At the same time, it analyses the structure and impact that the new Pact for the Mediterranean will have on the Union’s ability to regain political initiative and strengthen Euro-Mediterranean cooperation.
This edition also examines neighbouring areas of the region whose importance for the Euro-Mediterranean future is becoming increasingly evident. The continuum formed by the Red Sea, the Gulf and the Mediterranean, the competition between major powers and Mauritania’s role as a link between the Maghreb and the Sahel demonstrate that traditional borders are proving insufficient. Finally, this issue’s Keys conclude with a section devoted to social and demographic challenges: restrictions on the autonomy of civil society in the Maghreb, the new mobilizations of Generation Z, and the profound demographic divergences between the northern, southern and eastern shores of the Mediterranean bring this section to a close.
This edition’s Dossier focuses on the reconfiguration of the economic order and its impact on the region. Wars and geopolitical competition have brought economic security back to the forefront of economic policy. Supply chains, energy, food security, infrastructure and digital technologies have moved to the forefront of the geopolitical debate. The importance of economic globalization has given way to a growing revaluation of autonomy, resilience and strategic control. This shift may enhance the Mediterranean’s standing, but it may also deepen its asymmetries.
From various perspectives, the Dossier analyses the need to strengthen a private sector that, in many countries, is caught between informality, institutional weakness and a lack of investment; food and energy insecurity; the evolution of European energy policy towards strategic autonomy; and the growing role of Gulf sovereign wealth funds in ports, energy networks and connectivity infrastructure. It also addresses the changes in migration and training needs, the effects of artificial intelligence on employment and productivity, the structural impact of climate change on the economy, and the persistence of development gaps that continue to hinder regional convergence.
The fundamental question is whether the reconfiguration of the geo-economic order will serve to build a more integrated and resilient Euro-Mediterranean space or whether it will consolidate a fragmented and divergent geography. The answer will depend on the ability to link investment, the energy transition and digitalization with decent employment, social cohesion, institutional strengthening and regional cooperation.
As in every issue, the Panorama section complements these lines of analysis with shorter, more specific articles. The first part offers a geographical overview of the main political processes. In Europe, it analyses Greece’s Mediterranean policy and the institutional tensions in Bosnia and Herzegovina. In the Maghreb, the shift in diplomatic balances following Donald Trump’s return is examined, alongside internal inequalities in Morocco, institutional realignments in Algeria and the situation in Libya – a country caught up in a system of alliances that prioritizes stability in the energy interests of the countries involved, while failing to seek a solution to the division of the state. Turning to the eastern part of the region, the articles examine everything from Egypt’s vulnerability in the face of regional reconfiguration and the possibility of institutional renewal in Lebanon to Syria’s difficulties in rebuilding a viable state. The section’s geographical overview concludes with two articles on the dire situation in Sudan and Armenia’s rapprochement with the European Union.
The second part of Panorama is organized around strategic sectors. In the area of security and politics, the articles analyse the weakening of the ‘axis of resistance’ and the growing involvement of Egypt and Turkey in the Horn of Africa. The economic articles cover the adaptation of tourism to climate change, the relationship between growth and the informal economy, competition for critical minerals, the vulnerability of ports, energy networks and submarine cables, and the nexus between climate, water and food, as well as the need for a just Mediterranean transition in the post-2030 agenda. Finally, the Panorama section concludes with articles devoted to social issues, notably those addressing European divisions over Israel, mobility induced by climate change, the consolidation of migration as a political fault line, the destruction and exploitation of cultural heritage, and pressures on academic freedom.
As every year, the Appendices remain an indispensable reference tool. The timelines, statistics, maps and charts complement the articles and provide a factual basis for contextualizing events, comparing countries and tracking developments in the major issues affecting the Mediterranean region. Their continuity over the years makes this information an essential part of the Yearbook’s legacy and an archive of the region’s recent collective memory.
The production of this edition would not have been possible without the contributions of the authors, the Advisory Board, the editorial team, translators, proofreaders, layout designers and all the professionals at the IEMed who contribute to a collective undertaking of this nature.
The picture presented by our region does not inspire optimism. Conflicts are spreading, inequalities persist and the mechanisms for cooperation seem inadequate in the face of the scale of the challenges. The combination of authoritarianism, selfishness and ignorance appears to be advancing unchecked in today’s world. Knowledge alone does not halt conflicts or rectify inequalities, but it is an essential prerequisite for understanding their causes, questioning ineffective responses and identifying opportunities for collective action. We trust that the IEMed Mediterranean Yearbook will continue to contribute, in its own modest way, to progress in this direction through rigour and pluralism.
Header Photo: Ankara’s circular library interior with a central globe. Zehra Nur /Pexels