The Arab world is undergoing a significant phase of “regional reshaping,” characterized by shifting power dynamics, economic transformations and complex security challenges. This evolution is influenced by various factors, including the lingering effects of the Arab Spring, the emergence of new regional powers and the changing global landscape. Within this dynamic environment, the Maghreb region, comprising Algeria, Tunisia and Morocco, along with Egypt, holds a place of strategic importance. Their geographic locations, historical influence and economic potential position them as key actors in shaping the region’s trajectory. These pivotal Arab states are navigating a multifaceted landscape, with each country playing a distinct role in the region’s evolving future, influenced by both internal developments and external pressures. The Arab Spring uprisings, which began in the early 2010s, have left an enduring legacy of political and social change across the region. While some countries experienced transitions toward more democratic systems, others faced instability, conflict or a return to authoritarian rule. This period has also witnessed the rise of new regional powers, such as Türkiye and the Gulf states, and a shifting balance of influence, with traditional powerhouses like Egypt seeking to reassert their dominance. Understanding the interplay of these factors is crucial to analysing the current reshaping of the Arab world and the roles of the Maghreb and Egypt within it.
The Maghreb: A Region in Flux
The Maghreb region is experiencing a period of significant transition, marked by political, economic and security challenges and opportunities.
Fuel and Firepower: Algeria’s Hard Power Strategy
Algeria’s approach to the shifting regional order is defined by its assertive pursuit of regional influence through a combination of energy leverage, military modernization, and strategic alliance building, particularly evident in its engagement in the Sahel and its evolving relationships with neighbouring Maghreb states.
A linchpin in North Africa’s energy landscape, Algeria wields significant regional clout, actively projecting power, albeit with mixed results, particularly in the turbulent Sahel. The country’s foreign policy is characterized by a drive to reshape alliances, a strategy most clearly illustrated by its recent tripartite pact with Tunisia and Libya. The new alliance, called the “G3,” was formed in Carthage in 2024, signalling what was described as “a shift from a Maghreb of rhetoric to a Maghreb of action.” This realignment is a calculated power play, designed to amplify Algeria’s influence in a strategically vital region, while curtailing Morocco’s expanding Sahelian presence.
Algeria’s Sahelian policy is a complex and assertive undertaking. It employs a combination of diplomatic engagement and security cooperation, seeking to shape outcomes and maintain stability on its terms. Algeria’s active involvement is exemplified by its role in Mali and Niger. It tenaciously championed the 2015 Algiers Peace Accord in Mali, investing significant diplomatic capital to broker and uphold the agreement. The North African country has also been actively involved in regional security issues, particularly in Mali. It remained chair of the committee overseeing Mali’s 2015 Algiers Peace Accord and consistently urged Mali’s governments to uphold the agreement. However, this effort has been met with frustration, as relations with Mali’s ruling junta have frayed, with Bamako abandoning the accord and accusing Algiers of interference in its internal affairs. This setback prompted a stern warning from Algiers about the potential for wider regional destabilization, highlighting Algeria’s concern that the collapse of the agreement could unleash further conflict and extremism.
Similarly, in Niger’s 2023 coup, Algeria staked out a clear and principled position, advocating a carefully managed six-month civilian transition and staunchly opposing any ECOWAS military intervention. This stance underscores Algeria’s deep-seated aversion to foreign military adventures in its backyard, a policy rooted in its history and a desire to maintain regional stability on its terms.
Beyond its diplomatic and security initiatives, Algeria also uses its economic leverage to pursue its regional ambitions. Algiers further seeks to bind its southern neighbours through economic arteries, unveiling ambitious plans for cross-border free trade zones encompassing Mauritania, Mali, Niger, Tunisia and Libya. These zones are envisioned as conduits for trade and investment, solidifying Algeria’s ambitions for economic dominance. While wielding financial leverage by suspending loans to states backing Morocco’s Sahel policy, Algeria has simultaneously sought to cultivate influence by cancelling the longstanding debts of 14 African countries. The country is demonstrating its willingness to use its economic leverage to achieve political ends, and these moves are a reminder of Algiers’ determination to shape the region on its terms.
Algeria’s external relations are
a complex and carefully balanced web,
reflecting its desire to maximize
its options on the global stage
In parallel with its economic strategies, in the mid-1990s, Algeria embarked on a substantial military buildup, rising to become the 21st largest arms importer worldwide and the leading importer on the African continent, in 2024. This military modernization is exemplified by the recent purchase of Russian Su-57 fighter jets, a move that grants Algeria a critical edge in air operations over Morocco. Algiers recognizes that military strength is a key component of regional influence. This is further reflected in the January 2025 Defence Cooperation Memorandum of Understanding with the United States, “a first of its kind,” signalling a potential deepening of military ties, particularly in counterterrorism and security cooperation, and in the 2020 constitutional changes, which allowed its military to participate in peacekeeping operations and send army units abroad, hinting at a more interventionist stance.
Algeria’s external relations are a complex and carefully balanced web, reflecting its desire to maximize its options on the global stage. The European Union remains its primary trade partner, absorbing a lion’s share of Algerian gas exports, a relationship that gained renewed strategic importance in the wake of Russia’s 2022 invasion of Ukraine, as European states sought to diversify their energy sources. However, Algeria’s strategic orientation is also shaped by its deep-seated military relationship with Russia, from whom it sources nearly three-quarters of its arms (2018-2022), a connection reinforced by ongoing defence contracts and joint exercises. This balancing act is further underscored by Algeria’s active yet failed attempt to join the BRICS+ group, signalling its broader embrace of multilateralism and a desire to forge partnerships beyond the traditional Western sphere.
Algeria’s economic landscape is increasingly shaped by China’s ascendant role, with China now eclipsing individual European states, such as France, as Algeria’s leading source of imports, constituting roughly 20% of its total. While China’s economic footprint in Algeria is substantial – offering a crucial gateway to the African continent, and a vital export market for Algerian goods – Algeria has prudently limited security ties and carefully managed its economic relationship to avoid debt entrapment and maintain strategic autonomy. In contrast, Algeria’s relationship with the United States is marked by a more restrained engagement, primarily focused on counterterrorism collaboration and notable for the absence of substantial US military assistance or arms sales, a reflection of divergent strategic priorities. Concurrently, Algeria is cultivating ties with Türkiye, where Turkish investment, particularly in steel and textiles, contributes to Algeria’s efforts to diversify its economy, elevating Türkiye to become its 4th-largest import origin.
Morocco Ascendant in Africa, Adrift in the Maghreb?
Morocco’s approach to the shifting regional order is defined by its pursuit of economic diversification and its growing influence across the African continent. This ambition is pursued through an assertive foreign policy, most notably the significant and often divisive step of normalizing relations with Israel via the Abraham Accords.
Unlike its North African neighbours, which are grappling with acute political transitions or hydrocarbon dependency, Morocco has quietly cultivated a more variegated economic base. Manufacturing, anchored by burgeoning automotive, aeronautics and pharmaceutical sectors, contributes a stable 15% to GDP, a counter-current to regional deindustrialization. Morocco has achieved a greater degree of sophistication in its manufacturing exports, with a higher concentration of medium-tech goods compared to Tunisia and Egypt. However, aspirations to become a high-tech hub remain distant; despite a respectable ranking in the Global Innovation Index, its low score in knowledge-intensive employment underscores the need for deeper investment in human capital and research to truly diversify its economic engine.
The kingdom’s economic fundamentals showed resilience in 2023, with a 3.4% GDP expansion, buoyed by a resurgent tourism sector and robust export performance. Morocco’s improved current account balance, reaching its best level since 2007, was underpinned by robust export performance and significant remittance inflows. FDI inflows have also ticked upwards, signalling a degree of international confidence. Yet, the fruits of this growth are unevenly shared. Morocco grapples with the highest income inequality in North Africa, a stark reality that risks undermining social cohesion and limiting the broader impact of economic progress. Moreover, job creation stubbornly lags behind demographic expansion. Despite a more than 10% expansion in its working-age population over the last decade, Morocco’s employment rate only edged up by 1.5%. Finally, the stunted growth of its small and medium-sized enterprises, the traditional engines of employment, remains a structural weakness.
A key element of Morocco’s assertive foreign policy is its vigorous engagement on the African continent. Trade with the rest of Africa has ballooned tenfold since 2004, exceeding $3 billion, with Moroccan firms strategically investing over $2.5 billion, particularly in the Sahel-Saharan region, targeting sectors like telecommunications, finance, and increasingly, renewables and resource extraction to secure future economic opportunities. Grand infrastructure projects, such as the Nigeria-Morocco Gas Pipeline and the development of Atlantic ports like Dakhla (expected to be operational by 2029), underscore Rabat’s intent to become a pivotal node in continental trade and logistics, vying for influence in a rapidly evolving landscape. The recent Atlantic Initiative, aimed at providing landlocked Sahelian states with maritime access, not only enhances economic ties but also strategically positions Morocco in a region where geopolitical competition is intensifying.
Morocco’s soft power projection complements its economic and strategic aims. By offering training to security forces, supporting religious education and fostering ties with influential Sufi networks, Rabat seeks to build lasting relationships and project an image of regional leadership.
By offering training to security forces,
supporting religious education and fostering ties
with influential Sufi networks, Rabat seeks
to build lasting relationships and project
an image of regional leadership
However, a significant aspect of Morocco’s assertive foreign policy, and a persistent challenge to its regional relations, is the unresolved Western Sahara issue. Rabat’s claim over the territory continues to fuel a bitter and protracted rivalry with Algeria, the primary backer of the Polisario Front. This antagonism has effectively paralysed Maghreb integration efforts and remains a significant impediment to regional cooperation. The economic cost of this disunity is substantial; the World Economic Forum estimated that greater economic integration could add 5% to the annual GDP growth for each Maghreb country. This lost potential underscores the significant price paid for the ongoing political tensions, where the Western Sahara dispute acts as a major stumbling block. The lack of a resolution not only hinders bilateral relations between Morocco and Algeria, and now Tunisia and Morocco, but also prevents the realization of a more cohesive and economically vibrant North African bloc. Simultaneously, Morocco’s normalization of relations with Israel under the Abraham Accords further complicates relations with its neighbours. While hailed by some Arab and Western countries as a pragmatic step, it has further strained ties with Algeria, Tunisia and Libya, none of whom share such relations, creating a new fault line within the Maghreb.
Furthermore, Morocco’s diplomatic tightrope walk has become increasingly precarious. The “Morocco Gate” scandal in the European Parliament has tarnished its image. Also, managing migration flows to the EU has become a persistent source of friction, testing the limits of cooperation. In a notable instance of using migration for political ends, Morocco allowed 8,000 migrants to cross into the Spanish enclave of Ceuta in 2021, following Madrid’s decision to provide medical care to a Polisario Front leader, Brahim Ghali. Consequently, these diplomatic frictions risk undermining a relationship characterized by significant interdependence. The EU’s position as Morocco’s primary trade partner and a major donor contrast with Europe’s reliance on Moroccan intelligence in combating Islamist terrorism. The presence of a substantial Moroccan diaspora in Europe, estimated at 2,5 million, further cements their intertwined cultural and economic interests
In sum, Morocco presents a complex picture: a state pursuing economic modernization and projecting influence onto the African stage through an assertive foreign policy, yet simultaneously encumbered by a deeply entrenched territorial dispute, navigating delicate and sometimes strained relationships with Europe, and facing a newly fractured Maghreb landscape, partly of its own making. Its ability to reconcile these competing priorities will ultimately determine its success in the evolving regional order.
Tunisia’s Perilous Pivot: Political Drift, Economic Decline
Tunisia’s engagement with the evolving regional order is increasingly shaped by a confluence of internal political upheaval and deepening economic fragility, resulting in a notable shift away from its historically balanced diplomatic stance and a growing dependence on regional patronage.
Tunisia’s post-Arab Spring journey, initially hailed as a beacon of democratic promise, has taken a dramatic turn, marked by a significant political transformation under President Kais Saied. Saied’s consolidation of power has led to a departure from Tunisia’s tradition of balanced diplomacy. The combination of President Saied’s anti-Western rhetoric, his increasingly vocal anti-African sentiments and his rejection of IMF-backed reforms has fundamentally altered Tunisia’s diplomatic posture.
This departure from the traditional balance has resulted in increased international isolation, straining relations with traditional Western and Gulf partners and severely limiting access to crucial external financing. Moreover, Tunisia does not play an influential role in the regional powerplay, and at a time when Gulf states’ development assistance is shifting away from unconditional aid towards investments and business partnerships that directly benefit their economies, Tunisia’s economic woes make it a less attractive partner.
In this context, Algeria has emerged as Tunisia’s primary lifeline, providing substantial financial aid, energy supplies and essential food imports. While this support has been vital in staving off economic collapse, it has also increased Algeria’s leverage over Tunisia, influencing its internal political dynamics and its alignments on the regional stage. The most prominent example of this shift is Tunisia’s evolving stance on the Western Sahara conflict. Abandoning its long-held neutrality, Tunisia has increasingly aligned itself with Algeria, explaining its role as an “active neutrality,” a move that has triggered a diplomatic rupture with Morocco and further strained regional relations. This realignment has not only affected Tunisia’s relationship with Morocco, but also has broader implications for regional stability and cooperation.
This political upheaval has significantly weakened Tunisia’s diplomatic effectiveness and tarnished its international image. The foreign ministry has seen considerable turnover, with three ministers in the span of three years: Othman Jarandi, Nabil Ammar and the current minister, Mohamed Ali Nafti. This frequent change in leadership exacerbates the erosion of Tunisia’s standing abroad. Domestically, President Kais Saied’s actions have also drawn sharp criticism internationally. The expulsion of Esther Lynch, the general secretary of the European Trade Union Confederation, on his direct orders in February 2023, sparked widespread condemnation. This was compounded by his decision on the multilateral front to declare the Venice Commission persona non grata in Tunisia in May 2022, even expelling its members from the country, further isolating Tunisia from the international community.
Stagnant growth, a crushing debt burden,
persistent unemployment and stubborn inflation
form a complex web of challenges that threaten
to derail Tunisia’s democratic transition
Compounding these political shifts is acute economic fragility. Stagnant growth, a crushing debt burden, persistent unemployment and stubborn inflation form a complex web of challenges that threaten to derail Tunisia’s democratic transition. Indeed, the country’s ability to consolidate its democratic gains is inextricably linked to its capacity to overcome these economic woes. Tunisia’s economy paints a grim picture. GDP growth has limped along, recording a meager 0.6% in the first half of 2024, with projections offering scant comfort: 1.2% for 2024 and a tepid 2.3% for 2025-2026. This anemic performance follows a period of contraction, with real GDP shrinking by 1.5% between 2019 and 2023, a testament to the combined shocks of the Covid-19 pandemic, the war in Ukraine and severe drought.
The weight of government debt is a particularly heavy burden, standing at 79.8% of Nominal GDP in December 2024, a slight improvement from the previous year’s 84.6%, yet remaining at a dangerously elevated level. This economic malaise has seeped into the labour market, with unemployment climbing to 16.4% in the 4th quarter of 2023, up from 15.2% a year earlier. Labour-intensive sectors such as agriculture and construction have been disproportionately affected, contributing to a decline in labour force participation. While inflation has eased somewhat from its February 2023 peak of 10.4%, it has persisted at an elevated 6.7% since August 2024, with food prices a particular concern at 8.5%.
These indicators underscore Tunisia’s deep-seated economic vulnerabilities, including its reliance on sectors susceptible to external shocks and its exposure to the growing threat of climate change. The agricultural sector, for instance, suffered an 11% contraction in 2023 due to severe drought, forcing irrigation restrictions and exacerbating food insecurity. Consequently, agriculture’s contribution to GDP dwindled from 10.8% in 2022 to 9.5% in 2023.
The unfolding situation in Tunisia presents a cautionary tale, demonstrating how political missteps and economic fragility can converge to jeopardize a nation’s democratic transition and alter its regional role, with potentially destabilizing consequences.
The dream of a unified Maghreb
remains elusive, hampered by entrenched
rivalries and divergent priorities
Conclusion: North Africa’s Fragmented Future?
The Maghreb, far from coalescing into the economic and political bloc its potential suggests, remains a theatre of divergent trajectories. Algeria, wielding its energy muscle and military might, seeks to redraw regional alliances, its assertive stance in the Sahel and prickly relations with Morocco, defining a hard-power approach. Tunisia, meanwhile, grapples with political instability and economic peril, its pivot towards Algerian patronage a stark indicator of its diminished regional agency.
Morocco, charting a different course, looks south, its economic and diplomatic ambitions extending deep into Africa. Yet, the unresolved Western Sahara issue and its controversial normalization with Israel cast long shadows, fracturing Maghreb unity. Its assertive foreign policy, particularly its uncompromising stance on the Western Sahara issue where it seeks broader European and international alignment and its leveraging of migration as a political tool, increasingly complicates its crucial ties with the European Union.
Within the broader reconfiguration of the Middle East, the Maghreb’s internal divisions and disparate strategies highlight the complex and uneven nature of this regional reshuffle. Rather than presenting a unified Maghrebi front, these three states are individually navigating the shifting sands of power. Their bilateral tensions and distinct priorities often overshadow any potential for collective action in the face of larger regional and international dynamics.
Looking ahead, the region’s reshaping hinges on the interplay of these distinct national strategies. The dream of a unified Maghreb remains elusive, hampered by entrenched rivalries and divergent priorities. Instead, the region is likely to remain a fragmented landscape where bilateral alliances and external partnerships dictate influence, leaving its collective potential tragically unfulfilled as individual actors navigate a turbulent regional order.
Header photo: An abstract background image of the flag of Western Sahara painted on to rusty corrugated iron sheets overlapping to form a wall or fence. 7 December 2015. Antony McAulay. Shutterstock.