EU trade relations with Southern Mediterranean partners in times of crisis or conflict
This Joint Policy Study analyses how EU–SMC trade frameworks can evolve to better withstand crises and deliver shared prosperity. It reveals that most agreements remain shallow, focusing on industrial goods while excluding key sectors such as agriculture and services. The result is a persistent pattern of dependency and low-value exports, leaving many SMCs vulnerable to global shocks.
Three decades after the Barcelona Process, Euro-Mediterranean trade relations remain uneven. While the EU’s Association Agreements with Southern Mediterranean Countries (SMCs) have increased trade volumes, they have done little to foster resilience, diversification, or structural transformation.
Through case studies of Tunisia, Morocco, Jordan, Lebanon, and Libya, the study shows how crises such as COVID-19, the war in Ukraine, and the Gaza conflict have tested the region’s trade resilience. Deeper frameworks, such as Morocco’s, have proven more adaptable, while shallower ones, like Lebanon’s, rely on humanitarian aid rather than sustainable trade.
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