Syria and Lebanon: Impact of the Conflict and Paths to Recovery
3 March 2025 | Corporate news
afkar/debates, a series of online conversations that aims to contribute to the analysis of the most pressing issues in the Mediterranean region, is focusing its third edition on Syria’s political transition following the fall of the Assad regime, exploring the key challenges ahead and the role the EU can play in supporting an inclusive transition, and the challenges Lebanon faces on its long road to reconstruction.
SESSION 1: Syria’s Political Transition: Between Hope and Uncertainty (18 March, noon)
The toppling of the Assad regime by Hayat Tahrir Al-Sham (HTS) on 8 December marked a turning point in Syria’s political history, ending decades of authoritarian rule. However, this transition brings both hope and uncertainty as the country faces profound political, social, and economic challenges. While the interim government led by HTS has pledged to guide Syria towards stability and democracy, significant doubts remain about the future of governance, the protection of minorities, and Syria’s reintegration into the international community. Among the key challenges ahead are the reconstruction of state institutions, the implementation of transitional justice mechanisms, the drafting of a new constitution, and the organisation of free elections. The role of religious and ethnic minorities is another pressing issue. Beyond political and social reforms, Syria also faces acute economic challenges, urging the lifting of international sanctions.
For the EU, the end of the Assad regime presents an opportunity to support an inclusive, Syrian-led political transition, but a clear policy on Syria’s transition has yet to be defined. What institutional reforms are needed for an inclusive and legitimate transition? Can diplomatic recognition encourage democratic reforms? Are the HTS’s promises of tolerance and inclusiveness genuine attempts to build a pluralistic Syria, or mere concessions to international pressure? How can civil society and grassroots movements contribute to shaping a sustainable post-conflict Syria? These and other questions will be addressed in the panel.
SESSION 2: Lebanon: The Long Road to Reconstruction and Recovery (28 March, noon)
Lebanon is facing a deep and multifaceted crisis that has severely undermined its political, economic, and social stability. The devaluation of the Lebanese pound, entrenched political sectarianism, and widespread corruption have pushed the country to the brink. The confessional system—once designed to maintain balance—has fostered power fiefdoms dominated by nepotism and clientelism, eroding public trust and fueling mass protests. Amid this turmoil, the recent war between Hezbollah and Israel has further strained a country already battered by economic and political hardships. Despite a ceasefire agreement reached in November, tensions along the southern border remain high.
After more than two years of political deadlock, a shift in regional power dynamics has allowed Lebanon’s political forces to appoint a successor to Michel Aoun. However, the challenges ahead are immense. The fragile ceasefire, a lack of internal resources, and limited international support hinder recovery efforts, while deep-rooted sectarian divisions continue to obstruct political consensus.
This session will address the challenges Lebanon faces on its long road to reconstruction, including the formation of a new government, the viability of Hezbollah’s disarmament and the role of international community. Key questions to be addressed include: What obstacles hinder stable governance? How can Lebanon tackle its economic crisis and restore trust in state institution? Is Hezbollah’s disarmament feasible in the current context? How can the international support aid reconstruction efforts without deepening divisions?
Re-watch debates of the previous editions of the series:
Navigating Crises: Enhancing EU Soft Power in the MENA Region (2024)
Israel and Palestine: unveiling global and regional ramifications of the conflict (2023)